Green shoots or a whole new tree?

Let's face it – 2009 was tough. Of course this won't be new news to anyone. This is my third recession in the marketing industry and they don't get any easier. In fact, as I get older and have more people looking to me for answers, if anything it is more stressful than ever.

The term 'green shoots of recovery' has become almost a mantra for those seeking some optimism going into 2010. And, to be honest, over the last two months I've been insanely busy – averaging out at about a pitch a week (hence my pathetic lack of posting). In addition, existing clients appear to be aggressively ramping up for Q1 next year.

This is certainly good news for the bottom line (if pretty crappy for my sleep patterns and family time). But, for me, there still remains a question over whether the nature of what we do has fundamentally changed.

Everything changes, everything stays the same

If we are to believe the weight of opinion on Twitter and across many of the blogs, the relationship between businesses and their customers will never be the same again. The customer is now firmly in control. Trust in companies' marketing communications is at an all-time low. And anything without a strong social component is not worth investing in.

I have some sympathy with the thinking. But having worked through every fad from 1993 to the present day, I am also somewhat skeptical.

The customer has always had ultimate control. They decide whether to buy and who to buy from. What's changed is that they now have more opportunities than ever before to make their opinions heard. Way back when, getting people to hear about rubbish service or poor products meant a letter to Watchdog on TV. Now it is far easier to Tweet it, blog it and set up a Facebook group.

Customers also have less patience for being sold to when they aren't ready to buy. They've had to deal with too much spam, too many broken promises and, frankly, too much bullshit from those in our profession. So they've built walls to protect themselves. Spam filters are set to high. They register with the Telephone Preference Service. They bin direct mail without opening it.

But the overall impact of Twitter, blogs and Facebook – particularly in B2B where I play – is still relatively limited. The results are patchy. And the ROI for investing in them is currently difficult to judge. Believe me, I wish it wasn't so as they're generally more interesting to us practitioners than a lot of traditional activity. This may change of course (and probably will) but it will take time and the result will not look like what we have at present.

So what of the future?

No one knows how 2010 is going to shape up. It's likely to be another tough year – although not quite so tough as 2009. Of course, only an idiot would make predictions in such a volatile environment. So here goes...

Twitter's exponential growth will slow dramatically

The Twitter hype has been relentless. If you listen to some of the evangelists, you'd think that all you need to be an effective marketer today is shed-loads of followers and an ability to communicate in 140 character bursts. While Twitter is a fantastic link-sharing resource and real-time alert service, its ability to sustain anything but the most basic of 'conversations' is poor. Even among my unscientifically low number of follows and followers, the volume of Tweets is noticeably lower over the last 6 months. Personally, I believe this drop will continue. In its place I expect to see an increase in the kind of microblogging you see on Tumblr.

Google Wave will be the next big fad

It'll take a while, but Google Wave will begin to be hyped in the same way Twitter has. And, in the same way, marketers and their agencies will question how to make use of it and feel obliged to put it in every proposal. BTW, if you haven't had an invite to the beta yet and want one, drop me a line.

LinkedIn will rule B2B but...

So no change there then. However, there has to be a gap in the market for another credible competitor. Yes, I know there are others around but no-one has come close to challenging LinkedIn. The future will either be in niche networks (like Behance.net) or in ones that crack the news-sharing aspect in a better way (Biznik is quite good in this regard). These communities are absolutely where companies should be focusing a lot more of their attention.

Lead generation will continue to drive marketing programmes

There will continue to be massive pressure on marketing to deliver highly qualified leads to sales and the channel. More than ever, marketers will be immersed in dashboards and sales targets. The cold war that still exists between sales and marketing will have to finally end (and be under no illusion, if it is a fight to the death, sales will win). And in related news...

Marketing automation systems will become the norm for how to deploy campaigns

The rise of the Eloqua's, Marketo's and Responsys's of the world will continue. And there will be a number of new names coming to join them – many at lower cost and those bound up as a service with Saleforce.com being particularly interesting. Many clients will take more of demand generation activity in-house as they invest in these systems and, for many, their efforts will not deliver the results they expect or require. I still believe the end-game lies in the momentum approach I wrote about earlier in the year and a deeper understanding of what really drives behaviour (one based in psychology not in the latest business books).

Content will be king

I firmly believe that content is the future of the industry. Useful, engaging, active content that customers find both useful and persuasive. There is of course a line between content that is too salesy and that which is too passive. Getting this right (and being able to deliver a range of scalable content to match differing stages in the sales cycle) will be the real skill of successful creatives and niche agencies.  But more of that in posts to come.

That's it. Six predictions to think about.

In the meantime have a good break and a happy and prosperous new year.